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"I'll remain in this seat by 2027," the Prime Minister declared, joking that if the interview went well, he might welcome us into Number 10 for a follow-up chat in 2026.

There is never any break for prime ministers. Shortly before we sat down, the PM had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to understand exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his close friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our interview, which was far more extended than normal, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

But as the year starts, the Prime Minister appears to have had a kind of a reboot. Maybe even just a bit of a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly seemed to have resulted in a more positive mood than at the saggy tail end of 2025, a dreadful political year for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they think his fortunes are about to improve?

Leadership Questions

The grisly reality for the PM is that a significant number of his fellow MPs believe he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would rather gamble and get him out in 2026.

But Starmer was dismissing such talk when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he stated he'd be "evaluated at the general election", maintaining no one would strip his term from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 may be for Labour to switch its leader.

"We are in the battle of our generation and I plan to guide the party," he said.

The Spring Test

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be assessed long before then – in a huge set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to protest, maybe too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – in part. But although he may be reluctant to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir suggesting that there were no circumstances under which he would resign, even if one of his MPs ran against him for the job, if those elections prove very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the electorate was reasonably impatient for things to improve. He tried to assure me, and the nation, that this year would be distinct.

The economy would strengthen notwithstanding rising unemployment, he claimed, when strategies the government put in place during their first choppy year began to take effect.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he did not put a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a settlement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western allies were now considering how to coordinate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His core point is that soon the country will "turn the corner".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have communicated with greater vigour than observed from him for a some time – more relaxed, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering calls from many directions for a more decisive approach, with greater political direction, more vigour, more pace and more immediacy, his arguments were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political trouble, does he need a different script?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for many months, gets everything its own way.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because governing is hard, but because he and his team have faltered, including in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when statements he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer attributed it to "the system" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting clear political risks as the year gets going. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new jeopardy after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be content with this kind of intervention seems far-fetched.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but we "just haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Some called for him to condemn it before we spoke. And the administration is expected to face more pressure to give an explicit view in Parliament in the coming days.

There has also consistently been simmering desire in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the results of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's doing that, but his new specific pledge to move closer with the EU's single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will probably trigger howls that he is breaking his vow never to try to undo the results that stemmed from Brexit.

A commitment to align with more of the single market will satisfy a faction on his side of the party, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to