Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
